'Going by his political conduct over the past 15 years since first becoming chief minister, he has made enough enemies among equals as friends and followers.' 'They could gang up and that could mean a lot for AIADMK politics to handle,' says N Sathiya Moorthy.
For the AIADMK, winning the Srirangam by-election without Jayalalithaa campaigning for it, and having Panneerselvam as chief minister, is saying a lot in its favour. But again, a year and more is a long time in electoral politics in the country, and more so in Tamil Nadu, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Now that Tamil Nadu's tallest politician is no more, it remains to be seen how new political re-alignments could shape up, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Union Minister Farooq Abdullah on Friday said he will approach court and give "answer" to Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal for mentioning his name in his list of "corrupt" politicians.
The AIADMK supremo retained 13 of her ministers, who were in the previous cabinet, besides inducting 17 new faces including four women.
Swan Telecom promoter Shahid Balwa, who along with former Telecom Minister A Raja and 17 others are facing a money laundering case arising out of the 2G scam, on Friday moved the Supreme Court seeking setting aside of a lower court order of framing charges against him.
R Rajagopalan predicts that Tamil Nadu won't have single party rule for the first time in its history.
In the absence of the over-arching 'Jaya charisma', EPS has to convince the AIADMK's traditional constituencies, including those in his western districts, that his leadership would stand up against the BJP-led Centre even in a post-poll scenario, a la Jayalalithaa, and would not yield as much as party founder MGR had done, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Former telecom minister A Raja, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam MP Kanimozhi and 17 others were on Friday chargesheeted by the Enforcement Directorate in a special court in connection with a money-laundering case relating to the 2G spectrum allocation scam in which the party-run Kalaignar TV was allegedly paid Rs 200 crore by the promoters of Swan Telecom.
With the presidential elections over, the time has come for Prime Minister Modi to show Tamil Nadu that the state's interests are safe under him, says R Rajagopalan.
Though the show cause was issued in May, the order came after three months.
It does not stop here, though. According to field information, state ministers, AIADMK candidates and campaigners are asking BJP cadres accompanying them not to carry party flags at common rallies and also avoid their saffron shawl on those occasions. BJP cadres are also asked to stay out of the common campaign when it enters a minority-dominated areas, especially of Muslims, and re-join later, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
A staunch supporter of slain LTTE supremo V Prabhakaran, he also criticised the former prime minister for sending the Indian Peacekeeping Force to Sri Lanka in the 1980s.
The court said a 'scam was created when there was none'.
Rajinikanth will win the elections whenever they are held, predicts A Ganesh Nadar.
The man who led this journey is 50-year-old Kalanithi Maran, chairman and managing director of the Sun Group.
From social engineering to bearing the cost of COVID-19 treatment to financial reconstruction of Tamil Nadu's debt the debutant chief minister is emerging as a leader with a difference, says Shjne Jacob
In private, AIADMK spokespersons say that the raid on Chief Secretary P Ramamohana Rao might be aimed at weakening the AIADMK, and demotivating the party from selecting/electing Jayalalithaa's confidante, Sasikala Natarajan, as her successor -- first as party head then possibly in the government, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Natarajan was admitted to the hospital on Saturday with severe chest infection and was put on ventilator support.
He, however said he will serve people in whatever ways he can without entering electoral politics.
'In the last three to four months the BJP vote share in Tamil Nadu, which was 2.86% in 2016, has gone up to about 5%-6%.' 'The AIADMK will lose the minority votes and others who don't like the BJP and Modi.' 'The AIADMK decided to take the risk to get the 5%-6% votes that the BJP will bring in.'
There is no alternative for the party and the state to wait for CM Jaya to return home as CM Jaya, and make her call, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Whatever the circumstances the cadres will not let themselves be seen as challenging 'MGR's symbol'. It's an emotional identification for most of them, and many consider it an 'eternal sin' for them to defy 'Two Leaves', says N Sathiya Moorthy.
They are sure not to like this particular one, observes N Sathiya Moorthy
Fighting heavy odds, J Jayalalithaa proved her detractors wrong again with her grit and determination as she steered the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam to power for a second consecutive term, bucking the tradition since 1989 when no party has retained power in Tamil Nadu.
Will the AIADMK acknowledge the role of CAA and the anti-CAA protests, both inside the state and outside, as among the causes for the current electoral reversal, as many in the party now want? It is unlikely to be so, but then the pressure will increase on the leadership to reassess the BJP alliance at one level and the 'blind support' for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's controversial policies on the other, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa was on Saturday convicted and sentenced to four years jail in an 18-year-old corruption case in a judgment that will unseat her from the post, disqualified her immediately as an MLA and can impact the Assembly elections due in 18 months.
Unpredictable polling in Tamil Nadu, and criminal cases stacked against Chief Minister Jayalalithaa will be two key factors to be taken into consideration when the government is formed at the Centre, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
Thursday's protests across Tamil Nadu was less pro-Cauvery and more anti-Modi in character and content -- including in it various development projects in the state that are perceived as 'environmentally unfriendly' and hence 'anti-Tamil', says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Considering that all sides to the game feel being targeted by the BJP-ruled Centre through taxmen and their ED/CBI counterparts, both factions may not rule out the possibility of patching up after a time, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
No one at this point no one in the state is talking about a clean sweep with high victory margins that the AIADMK front won in the 2011 assembly elections. The 'Modi factor', as against a 'Modi wave', has ensured as much, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Charging the Congress-led UPA government with not incorporating the amendments suggested by her in the Food Security Bill, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa on Sunday said her party AIADMK will vote against it in the Lok Sabha on Monday.
Tamil Nadu has time and again proved that it needs a decisive leader even if corrupt, rather than an indecisive leader, however good-hearted, good-natured and honest he may be, writes N Sathiya Moorthy.
Rajini said his contemporary Kamal Haasan possibly knew what that something was.
And in the midst of it all, Jayalalithaa keeps the guessing game going, on her returning as chief minister and on calling for early assembly polls, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
With Tamil Nadu's electoral fate decided, all eyes would now veer round to the pending 'disproportionate assets case' against Jayalalithaa in the Supreme Court, and Stalin's own future within the DMK, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Vijaykanth on Sunday kickstarted the first major political move in Tamil Nadu, and against the ruling AIADMK, ahead of the 2016 assembly polls. But what if Jayalalithaa were to win the 'wealth case' ultimately? N Sathiya Moorthy explores the scenario arising from the Supreme Court's order in the Jaya case on Tuesday.
'Sasikala, already determined to keep both the party and CM's post for herself, might not be able to do it, if she were to wait any longer,' says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Inscrutable have been the ways of Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa. She is a political strategist and tactician rolled into one that her unpredictable ways have won the day for her - mostly, says N Sathiya Moorthy
Should the ruling AIADMK in Tamil Nadu not make the required five out of 22 by-election seats, or even otherwise, the temptation to poach, especially from the Congress or starting with the Congress may be high on Chief Minister Edappadi K Palanisami's agenda, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
